Mike Shatzkin Discusses The Printed Book’s Path to Oblivion

The Shatzkin Files: "It seems reasonable to me (although not to every forward-thinking observer of the march of digital events) that by five years from now half of immersive reading — straight text novels and non-fiction — could have moved from paper to devices. But for those who question the idea that the switch from paper to screens will ultimately be just about total, let me offer a way to think about it. .."

Requiem for Traditional Book Publishing in Crain's New York

From Crain's New York Business: Another requiem for dead-tree publishing, paired with a great discussion of Jane Friedman, her Open Road, and another interesting start-up, Dale Peck's Mischief and Mayhem.

... Apple's iPad, Barnes & Noble's Nook and new iterations of the Kindle have accelerated the e-book revolution, which is undermining traditional publishing's economics with lower prices than those for hardcover books. It's also threatening the foundation of the business: the humble brick-and-mortar bookstore.

Several weeks ago, Barnes & Noble, the largest bookstore chain, did the unthinkable and put itself up for sale. Independent bookstores, whose ranks have diminished by about half since 2000, continue to close.
The end of bookstores could be the final nail in the coffin for traditional publishing. The big trade houses rely on acres of shelves to sell their wide-ranging titles, from literary and commercial fiction to nonfiction that doesn't have a news hook or a celebrity's name on the cover.

And the end could come sooner than many people think. E-book sales have tripled in the past year, and now make up 8.5% of publishers' revenue. They'll hit 50% by 2015, according to Mike Shatzkin, chief executive of The Idea Logical Co.

At that point, the few stores left standing will sell just a quarter of all physical books, down from around three-quarters today, and big publishers will “come under threat,” he says. “Their value is based on delivering distribution.

... Through May, overall net sales for hardcover books totaled $713 million—a bump over last year's numbers but a decline of 19% from the same period in 2007, according to the Association of American Publishers.

“The hope is that e-book sales will balance out the decline in physical book sales,” says Jack Perry, a former Random House sales chief who consults on digital issues for publishers. “That hasn't happened yet.” ...

That Radical New Invention - The Printed Book

Traditionalists despised Gutenberg's technology. Check out Robert Pinsky's consideration of Andrew Pettegree's The Book in the Renaissance (Yale, 421 pages, $40). New York Times Book Review: "The 'fluid, transitional nature of communication' during printing’s first heyday naturally attracted detractors. 'This is what the printing presses do: they corrupt susceptible hearts' wrote the 'dyspeptic Benedictine' Filippo de Strata. Clumsy and unreliable editions led to 'the charge that print had debased the book.' By making book ownership more common, print also 'diminished the lustre of the Renaissance library,' causing many collections to dwindle or dissolve altogether as 'the library as a cultural institution struggled to adapt to the new age.'" Sound familiar?

Crown Digital's eBooks Pricing Policy Misses the Mark

I think the pricing scenario described below is a mistake in that it will disadvantage the eBooks of Crown authors against more fairly and appropriately priced eBooks from other publishers. The eBook market has already been trained to expect e-editions to be more economically-priced than dead-tree media, and will vote with its dollars. Crown's theory, I assume, is to guard against moderately-priced e-editions cannibalizing dead-tree sales. Previously, Crown has also experimented with delaying e-editions until a period of time well after the dead-tree publication, thus endeavoring to create artificial scarcity and protect higher-priced dead tree sales through brick-and-mortar outlets. Either approach will rebound against Crown and Crown authors.

Crown Digital Embraces eBooks And Interactivity - mediabistro.com: eBookNewser: "Random House's Crown Digital imprint is embracing the digital publishing landscape with interactive digital titles and a push into iPhone apps. Crown is also setting eBook prices equal to print editions. ... For example, if a novel is $24.99, the eBook is $24.99. It is consistent with the lowest price, so if the publisher puts out a paperback version at $12.99, then the eBook will drop to $12.99. ..."