Digital Reading: On the Way to the Webcast, a Funny Thing Happened

Digital Book World: "Gather a group of digital publishing pros and usability experts in the same (virtual) room, and the discussion gets deep, detailed, and far-seeing. ... "

The end of [paper] books is good for writers and readers

Tom Keane, The Boston Globe:

... There are a great many business ideas where some entrepreneur can strike it rich; [brick-and-mortar] bookselling is no longer one of them. ... 

The book is dead. Books (and by “books’’ I mean words printed on paper with a hard- or softcover binding)" ... 

Two weeks ago, the American Association of Publishers reported that January sales for adult hardcovers were down 11.3 percent, adult paperbacks were down 19.7 percent, and adult mass market books down 30.0 percent. Expect to see those kinds of numbers repeated.

Not all kinds of books will suffer as badly, of course. Children’s books and art books — where layout and graphics are paramount — will persist. Paper is still (for a time) a better medium than digital screens for complex layouts and — especially relevant for kids — far better at absorbing spills and accidental drops. But when it comes to long-form, picture-free books such as novels, paper no longer makes sense. Electronic readers are this year’s hot-selling items because they really are a better way to read. ...

The end of [paper] books may be to the betterment of both writers and readers. The expense of publishing and distribution necessarily meant the imposition of middlemen — agents, editors, printers — who picked and chose what would get published. Now anyone can write a novel, for example, and make it available for sale. The industry seems to be figuring out the issue of digital rights management (something the music industry still hasn’t solved), meaning that authors get paid for their creativity. And even though e-books are less expensive than books, arguably more of that will get back to the people involved in their creation.

Marshall McLuhan famously wrote that “the medium is the message.’’ I’ve never understood why. It is the message — “the information,’’ as journalist James Gleick calls it — that matters. [Paper] Books die. Digital rises. The medium changes; the message remains.

No Buyers for Barnes & Noble at 60 Cents on Dollar

Businessweek:

Even with Barnes & Noble Inc. selling for 60 cents on the dollar, the cheapest retailer in America still isn’t cheap enough to entice private-equity buyers looking for cash. 

The bookseller founded by Leonard Riggio has fallen 28 percent since putting itself up for sale seven months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Losses accelerated after the New York-based company eliminated its dividend in February, leaving Barnes & Noble at a 15-year low last week. The chain is the only U.S. retailer with a value of more than $500 million trading at a discount to its net assets, the data show. 

Barnes & Noble destroyed 80 percent of its shareholders’ value since rising to a record five years ago as Riggio, who bought the bookstore in 1971, fell behind Amazon.com Inc. in selling books over the Internet and starting an electronic reader business. Now, with Barnes & Noble piling money into its Nook reader to compete with the Kindle and Apple Inc.’s iPad and analysts projecting its first loss in a decade, the only buyer left may be Riggio himself as private-equity firms back away after the bankruptcy of Borders Group Inc., according to Wall Street Strategies Inc. in New York. 

“There’s not much to like,” said Brian Sozzi, Wall Street Strategies’ retail analyst. “One thing I’ve learned in retail is once the model starts to go against you it’s tough to pull yourself out. Assets on their books are losing value so quickly. Other than Riggio, I don’t know who else would want it.” ...

The Kindle-Killer That Wasn’t

TIME: "Throw away your iPad. Trash your Kindle. The future of reading is made of something far more innovative, and it's called 'paper.' The flipback is, according to Patrick Kingsley at the UK Guardian, an ingenious new kind of printed book designed for the iGeneration. 'Could this kill the Kindle?' the headlines asks. Err, no. ..."

re: Borders UK meltdown

The Bookseller: "Waterstone's could be best placed to capitalise from a loss in market share by Borders, according to an influential retail analyst. In a wide-ranging note on entertainment retail, Paul Smiddy at HSBC said this week that between space re-allocation and store closures, Borders would lose market share over the next year, with Waterstone's in the best position to gain from this. ... "

What if Amazon released Android Kindle tablet?

Tech Gear: "Firstly, in the short term, any Android-based Kindle isn't about Amazon competing with iPad or other Apple iOS devices. Amazon's ambitions are much larger: Capitalizing on the enormous Android ecosystem of applications and devices and extending its core competency as a retailer. Amazon already does this on Android and other mobile operating systems with the Kindle app. But Amazon sells more digital content than just ebooks. Android Kindle -- as device or app -- would allow Amazon to better bundle other digitally downloaded products, like movies, music and TV shows."

Is Amazon working on an Android Kindle?

Nick Bilton of NY Times via NDTVGadgets.com: "Although Jeff Bezos, Amazon's chief executive, has said in the past that a color Kindle is 'multiple years' away, new job listings on the Lab 126 Web site, the division of Amazon that makes the Kindle, show that the company is building up its team of Android developers, which might involve developing software for a color screen. At least five new jobs were added in the last week alone seeking developers with Android programming experience. Now this could simply mean that Amazon is hiring engineers to work on new software for other Android devices. But it could also pave the way for a Kindle that runs Android, which would in turn be a color device. The current Kindle runs the Linux operating system. It's still up for debate whether an Android Kindle would be good for Amazon, or better for Google. With tablets becoming a competition over the number of apps available for the platform, Amazon would have a lot of catching up to do if the company decided to introduce an entirely new tablet operating system."

Len Riggio: American trade on cusp of "transformational growth"

If I were Lenny, I wouldn't mention Borders either. The Bookseller: "Barnes & Noble chairman Len Riggio has said the American book trade is on the cusp of 'transformational growth' led by digital sales, in a bullish keynote address to the annual meeting of the Association of American Publishers (AAP), in which he stated that that the book chain remained 'committed now as ever to the future of [its] stores'. Riggio did not talk about B&N's falling share price or whether he might buy the company back; he did not mention Borders. ... "

Gleick's "The Information" is to the nature, history and significance of data what the beach is to sand

Janet Maslin, NY Times: "The Information is so ambitious, illuminating and sexily theoretical that it will amount to aspirational reading for many of those who have the mettle to tackle it. Don’t make the mistake of reading it quickly. Imagine luxuriating on a Wi-Fi-equipped desert island with Mr. Gleick’s book, a search engine and no distractions. The Information is to the nature, history and significance of data what the beach is to sand."

Crush or Get Crushed: Why B&N Needs to Be a Publisher

Michael Wolf: "Let’s face it, the total pie in books is going to shrink, and the long and unwieldy value-chain from writer to customer is going to collapse. Amazon knew this a long time ago, and that’s why they’ve been moving to disintermediate the publisher and the wholesaler in the e-book world by becoming, essentially, the entire value chain themselves. B&N should do the same, and do it quick. Sure, like Amazon, it launched its own self-pub platform in PubIt!, and it tinkered around with a few imprints on the print side for some time. But in the collapsing world of books, it’s every man for himself, and its time for B&N to accelerate its push into becoming a digital publisher."

Alexander Nazaryan on the future of publishing - best soundbite of the month award

NY Daily News: "In truth, flooding the market with books doesn't work, because books aren't like shoes or groceries. Readers don't demand choice as much as they demand quality. Fewer books, rigorously edited and thoughtfully published, would have better served both readers and writers. ... If there is hope for publishing, it is with modest presses and modest books, putting out titles for small but loyal audiences. But that's not something that's going to warm the heart of Penguin's CEO."

Borders bankruptcy's impact across the industry

PW: "The trickle-down impact will affect everyone from manufacturers to agents. Borders accounted for about 8% of overall industry sales, a higher percentage in some categories. A downsized Borders means publishers are likely to receive smaller orders and in turn place smaller first printings, resulting in less business for printers. The likelihood of lower print sales, one publisher said, means that books acquired one or two years ago when Borders was much bigger will have a more difficult time earning the advance back and that less shelf space could mean lower advances."

AAP Reports the Obvious: eBooks Boosted Sales in 2010

PW: "The Association of American Publishers' domestic sales report for 2010 showed e-book sales jumping significantly from last year, rising 164.4%, with e-books bringing in $441 million at the 14 companies that reported sales, compared to $166.9 million in 2009. While all print categories were down slightly in 2010, children's/YA hardcover dropped the most, at 9.5%. The good news for reporting companies is that the significant growth in e-book sales was able to make up for the drops in print revenue, resulting in a 0.2% increase in combined print and e-book sales in 2010. E-book sales represented 8.3% of combined trade sales in 2010, up from 3.2% in 2009. E-book sales have jumped 623% since 2008, when sales from reporting companies were $61.3 million, a figure that represented about 1% of trade sales."

AAP Stats on Viral eBook Sales Growth

More good #s: "E-books grew a dramatic 164.8 percent in December 2010 vs the previous year ($49.5 Million vs $18.7M). In the AAP’s ninth year of tracking this category, E-books once again increased significantly on an annual basis, up 164.4 percent for 2010 vs 2009 ($441.3M vs $166.9M). E-book sales represented 8.32 percent of the trade book market in 2010 vs 3.20 percent the previous year. ... "

S&P Analyst: US Market "Over-Saturated" in Terms of Number of Retail Book Stores

NYTimes.com: "'The book retailing industry is very challenging right now,' said Michael Souers, an analyst for Standard & Poor’s. 'We’ve had significant transformation. Bookstores have gradually been losing their prominence, and the U.S. market is over-saturated in terms of the number of retail stores. So that trend will likely continue as e-books gain more prevalence in the market.' ... "

With Borders decline, industry loses millions of square feet of shelf space (permanently)

Hillel Italie, AP: "Whether or not Borders survives closing some 200 stores, the 'superstore' boom of the past two decades has busted, authors and publishers face a market minus millions of square feet of physical shelf space and communities once crowded with booksellers may find themselves with none. ... "

Blog To Book Deals ... and Market Saturation

Digits - WSJ: "Blogger starts a blog. Blogger solicits photos or texts or emails. Blogger gets a book deal. That formula has been wildly successful for the last few years, but is showing signs of market saturation. ... "

Borders' Bankruptcy, eBooks, and Evaporating Physical Shelf-Space

Jeff Trachtenberg and Paul Sonne, Wall Street Journal:

A bankruptcy filing by Borders Group Inc., which could come within days, will mean fewer places for consumers to buy books, which in turn is expected to speed the pace of online and e-book sales.

Borders has been putting the finishing touches on a store-closure program that could eliminate more than one-third of its 674 stores as part of a Chapter 11 restructuring, according to people familiar with the matter.

"Once physical shelf space is gone, it's gone forever," says Mark Coker, chief executive of Smashwords Inc., an e-book publishing and distribution platform based in Los Gatos, Calif. "If you remove books from our towns and villages and malls, there will be less opportunity for the serendipitous discovery of books. And that will make it tougher to sell books." ...

Analysis: Amazon Positioned for 50% Overall Market Share by End of 2012

Stephen Windwalker, Seeking Alpha: "... the low-margins interpretation [of Amazon's performance] misses another, much more dramatic story. The big story is that in just three years Amazon has positioned itself to triple its overall share of the U.S. book business for all formats. Before the end of 2012, Amazon could own more than half of the U.S. book business across all formats. ... " I agree with the above analysis and that Amazon will continue to be a great story over time, but I think the stock has gotten way ahead of itself from a P/E point-of-view. No reflection on the company, however, or its strategy.

Does Amazon Make Money on the Kindle?

Dan Gallagher - Digits - WSJ: "The Amazon Kindle is far and away the most popular of the dedicated e-reader devices on the market. But it remains unclear just how much profit – if any – the company is able to realize from the device and its associated e-books business. ... "