Friday, July 30, 2010

eBook Cannibalization of Dead Tree Sales? What a Surprise ...

John Mesjak, independant (bound) book rep, takes issue with a statement from Russ Grandinetti, Amazon's VP of Kindle Content: "The market is even bigger than we thought." Mesjak:
A shiny new Kindle or iPad or Kobo or Nook won't convert a non-book buyer into a rabid book buyer. It might give us some incremental growth. But not revolutionary growth. The market isn't bigger than we thought. It's exactly the size we were afraid it might be. eBook readers aren't a panacea for our business. They're a band-aid. A shiny new band-aid. ...

This massive acquisition of eBook readers in 2010 may make for a bright and shiny holiday season for eBook retailers. And it might even contribute to a gloomy holiday season for bookstores that still specialize in the "books printed on paper" category.
Mesjak misses the point. Grandinetti's statement translates to: the market for e-readers and e-books is far larger, at this time, then was originally forecast. Grandinetti is talking about accelerated growth/acceptance for e-books, nothing more. Certainly not growth in the market for books overall.

No one I know expects digital devices to transform illiterates into bibliophiles. Meanwhile, everyone I speak to realizes the rapid expansion in e-book sales must come with an equal, counter-balancing cannibalization of dead-tree sales.

Everyone. Especially Grandinetti. No headlines here.